On polls and policies.

A few people are in a tizzy over CTV/Strategic Council’s poll last night that showed what they claimed was a Dion “nosedive” from their December poll. First, its a Strategic Council Poll. I don’t need to remind you about their Harper majority government poll numbers last year, do I? 2ndly, despite the aforementioned scepticism of any poll commissioned by SC, the poll still shows a neck and neck when the MOE is factored in. That would put it in line with the Decima and SES polls which showed a virtual tie between the Liberals and the Tories last week.

Now then, with all that said, I’ll say that the Liberal hierarchy would do well not to ignore warning signs like this. My chief concern has been they have been far too unwilling to present policy alternatives or stake out bold new ground, and are in a “wait-till-the election” mode. I’ll point to 2 specific examples - the apparent failure to work with the NDP to get an alternative “Green” bill out there to Harper’s Clean Air Act, and how the Liberals have only reacted to Harper’s Senate “half-reform” proposals.

First, on the environment:

I’ve posted several things here saying that the Liberals should not be waiting around hoping that the Tories attempted modifications to their bill with NDP help would fall through. Harper is attempting to neutralize this issue for the upcoming election, and I have argued quite strongly that if the environment is going to be neutralized as an issue.. then the Liberals should be the ones to help take credit for that, and not allow the Conservatives that talking point. Bill C-288 was a nice touch, but they need to get more policy-specific. The Liberals should be either supporting the NDP’s/Layton’s private member’s alternative bill on the Environment (with some amendments to add short-term targets), or they should be coming out and stating that they would support the inclusion of those exact same policies in the Clean Air Act attempted amendments. Really, this Liberal reluctance to touch anything that is NDP is getting to be a liability. If the polls are to be believed, the NDP has stayed around 14-15% in the latest polls.. and the Liberals should stop worrying about whether the NDP is going to take credit for this or not if they can get it to pass.. and/or get over the resentment some in this party have over the NDP helping to bring down the Martin Liberals in 2006.

2ndly, electoral reform. I have argued with some Liberals before that the Liberal Party’s main hesitation at wanting to do anything about electoral reform is that many see the first-past-the-post system as having been the main reason why the Liberals were able to govern for the majority of the 20th century, and they are loath to do anything here. Look at Paul Martin’s democratic reform ministers who were supposed to help address the “Democratic Deficit”. They did nothing but drag their feet.

Now we have Harper coming out with this “half-reform” of consulting Canadians on who to appoint to the Senate. I think its a political ploy designed to get votes, and I’m opposed to the notion of trying to open the Senate up to reform it, as that opens up a Constitutional can of worms. That being said, rather then merely reacting to it by either rejecting it out of hand or else supporting it, but with different conditions on term limits, Dion and the Liberals had (and still have) a golden opportunity to go out there and say to the Canadian electorate that real electoral reform should be taking place in the House.. and that it can be done without Constitutional talks.

An announcement that they would support looking at instituting a type of Proportional Representation for voting in the House would be a bold, decisive and innovative manoeuvrer. I know that Dion has such a plan - because I remember that A BC’er In Toronto asked him about it, and he gave out what he thought would be a sensible voting reform to the House. I didnt agree with it because I felt it didnt go far enough.. but even announcing THAT would be a step in the right direction. That particular policy or idea of Dion;s has never been pronounced publicly., and there is room out there for advocating that idea.

In short.. take what you see from certain polling companies with a grain of salt.. dont get in a panic over it. The election campaign will be what is the key here. At the same time, I’d urge the Liberal Party and Monsieur Dion and his party strategists that they need to show a bit more daring and a bit more flexibility when it comes to presenting Canadians with alternative policies, and to counter Harper’s obious machinations of trying to do what he has to do to get his vaunted majority government. Don’t be afraid to work with your NDP colleagues, and let’s get some idea out there with specifics and something that will get people talking.