Another “boutique state” votes for Obama

Steve:

This is Mississippi. This is also an open primary, and this is also where Rush Limbaugh encouraged his listeners there to vote for Clinton - just to play havoc with the results. Mississippi is an exception, not a trend.

Sorry Steve, I don’t buy it. Mississippi is a state that still has a racially charged population, and this vote didnt particularly surprise me at all.

Limbaugh irrelevant? Maybe he is, but check the exit polls and look at the sizable minority of voters who were Repubs who voted in the Democratic Primary election.. and they massively went for Hillary.

Just for reference, Ohio also went 90% black for Obama, 2/3 rds whites to Clinton.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/04/730736.aspx

I don’t think the 2/3s of whites for Clinton in Ohio had much to do with race (although the 90% of blacks for Obama unquestionably was).  Clinton’s win in Ohio–and consequently a larger share of the white vote–had more to do with Clinton’s appeal among certain core Democratic groups (most notably labour).   Mississippi’s result on the other hand is quite clearly a demonstration of lingering racism in that state.  Its also important to note that there is evidence of a gender gap in this race as well.

I think its important to remember that Obama’s surge started with a win in the overwhelmingly (91%) "white" state of Iowa.    While the "race gap" is evident in most of the states that have gone so far Obama has also done quite well in some pretty white places–Washington, Idaho, Alaska, Conneticut, Kansas, Utah, North Dakota, Maryland, Wisconsin all come to mind.

Both Clinton and Obama will face challenges in overcoming prejudices against them in a general election.  Lots of people won’t vote for a black man, and lots of people won’t vote for a woman.  I dont think one or the other is more detrimental (particularily given the concentration of the real race problems in the reddest of red states–not that I dont think the Dems should work to win every state)   That is something that Democrats implicitly accepted when they elevated these two to front runner status and their bravery in that respect should be commended.

This is race has been over for a while. The only way Clinton stands a chance to convince superdelegates to come onside is if she can pull "70-30" like margins in revote’s that take place in Michigan and Florida, or, Obama has his "Quebec is a nation/Qana was a war crime" moment.

However, barring all that, the question is, how long will Clinton continue her "scorched earth" policy? Which I already believe has increased McCain’s odds of winning in November 2008.

I also think the race thing has been overblown greatly by the media and been swallowed by a lot of participants and surrogates. There is no "general" white vote bloc, as Obama’s victories in central/northwest US would suggest.

This is ultimately about class and generations…. something that is too complicated for most people to cover.