Comments on: Libs and Cons deadlocked in new Decima Poll. Will Chantal Hebert mention it? http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/ My personal opinions on social and political issues from a progressive standpoint. Fri, 04 Jul 2008 05:43:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: deBeauOs http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14341 deBeauOs Sat, 05 Apr 2008 00:44:51 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14341 It's been rumoured that Chantal went into a deep, dark funk when she heard that Big Blob Blogger was carrying Stevie's love blob.  So, no.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14341','deBeauOs'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14341','deBeauOs','It\'s been rumoured that Chantal went into a deep, dark funk when she heard that Big Blob Blogger was carrying Stevie\'s love blob.  So, no.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> It’s been rumoured that Chantal went into a deep, dark funk when she heard that Big Blob Blogger was carrying Stevie’s love blob.  So, no.
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]]> By: Ted http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14335 Ted Thu, 03 Apr 2008 19:12:40 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14335 Were neck and neck, so lets go to the polls. Will Dion stand up to the immigration bill? Or is it huff and puff and wimper away? I think every one knows the answer.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14335','Ted'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14335','Ted','Were neck and neck, so lets go to the polls. Will Dion stand up to the immigration bill? Or is it huff and puff and wimper away?\r\nI think every one knows the answer.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Were neck and neck, so lets go to the polls. Will Dion stand up to the immigration bill? Or is it huff and puff and wimper away?
I think every one knows the answer.
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]]> By: Northern PoV http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14334 Northern PoV Thu, 03 Apr 2008 14:29:04 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14334 Most of the pundits are pleasing their masters with Chantal-Herbert-like views of our guy. This one is much more fair, and hurts all the more. http://forums.macleans.ca/advansis/?mod=for&act=dis&eid=62  <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14334','Northern PoV'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14334','Northern PoV','Most of the pundits are pleasing their masters with Chantal-Herbert-like views of our guy.\r\nThis one is much more fair, and hurts all the more.\r\nhttp:\/\/forums.macleans.ca\/advansis\/?mod=for&amp;act=dis&amp;eid=62\r\n '); return false;">Quote</a></div> Most of the pundits are pleasing their masters with Chantal-Herbert-like views of our guy.
This one is much more fair, and hurts all the more.
http://forums.macleans.ca/advansis/?mod=for&act=dis&eid=62
 
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]]> By: me dere robert http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14333 me dere robert Thu, 03 Apr 2008 14:19:27 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14333 Bob Fife hasn't been pro-conservative, lately anyway.  He's been pretty easy on the Liberals. Jane Taber on the other hand...<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14333','me dere robert'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14333','me dere robert','Bob Fife hasn\'t been pro-conservative, lately anyway.  He\'s been pretty easy on the Liberals. Jane Taber on the other hand...'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Bob Fife hasn’t been pro-conservative, lately anyway.  He’s been pretty easy on the Liberals. Jane Taber on the other hand…
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]]> By: Rick http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14332 Rick Thu, 03 Apr 2008 13:52:27 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14332 ALW speaks some sense. I mentioned this over at FarnWide as well, but I always laugh at people who pick and choose the polls they like based on results. The regionals on a national poll cannot be trusted when they have margins of error above 5.  CROP does a poll of 1000 just in QC, and have a margin of error of 3%, yet people actually believe Decima has a better read on QC than CROP?  I always measure any polls released around a CROP poll by the CROP test - if they match or are within the CROP margin of error for QC, then the poll is valid.  Decima is 8 points below CROP on Tory support, and 7 points too high on BQ support.   Therefore, the poll is not valid.  <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14332','Rick'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14332','Rick','ALW speaks some sense.\r\nI mentioned this over at FarnWide as well, but I always laugh at people who pick and choose the polls they like based on results. The regionals on a national poll cannot be trusted when they have margins of error above 5.  CROP does a poll of 1000 just in QC, and have a margin of error of 3%, yet people actually believe Decima has a better read on QC than CROP?  I always measure any polls released around a CROP poll by the CROP test - if they match or are within the CROP margin of error for QC, then the poll is valid.  Decima is 8 points below CROP on Tory support, and 7 points too high on BQ support.   Therefore, the poll is not valid.\r\n '); return false;">Quote</a></div> ALW speaks some sense.
I mentioned this over at FarnWide as well, but I always laugh at people who pick and choose the polls they like based on results. The regionals on a national poll cannot be trusted when they have margins of error above 5.  CROP does a poll of 1000 just in QC, and have a margin of error of 3%, yet people actually believe Decima has a better read on QC than CROP?  I always measure any polls released around a CROP poll by the CROP test - if they match or are within the CROP margin of error for QC, then the poll is valid.  Decima is 8 points below CROP on Tory support, and 7 points too high on BQ support.   Therefore, the poll is not valid.
 
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]]> By: ALW http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14331 ALW Thu, 03 Apr 2008 13:08:30 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14331 Why does everyone think these two polls can’t both be right? They can be. If actual support levels are: Conservative 35 Liberal 29 NDP 15 Green 11 Bloc 9 ...then the Decima poll and the Angus-Reid poll are both within their stated 3.1% margins. So they’re <em>both right</em>. The biggest mistake that everyone seems to make - Liberal, Tory, positive, negative - is confusing shifts of less than 3 points as a trend, or even shifts of 6 points as a "big shift". A shift of 6 points could actually be <em>no shift at all</em>! It all depends where in the margin of error the shift occurs. Note that I’m not defending Chantal Hebert’s excitement here. But it’s also the reason you don’t see me raving about a poll showing the Tories "up 5%". Lastly, I don’t even know why most people bother with the subregional analysis, unless the sample size is increased dramatically. If you look at the regional error margins they are usually 6-7% or more - meaning again, "movement" of 10% or 12% could actually be no movement at all (this explains why the regional breakdowns are always way more dramatc in their shifts) My point, as usual, is that anyone that spends an inordinate amount of time getting excited or depressed by polls is just being foolish.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14331','ALW'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14331','ALW','Why does everyone think these two polls can’t both be right? They can be. If actual support levels are:\r\nConservative 35\r\nLiberal 29\r\nNDP 15\r\nGreen 11\r\nBloc 9\r\n...then the Decima poll and the Angus-Reid poll are both within their stated 3.1% margins. So they’re <em>both right<\/em>.\r\nThe biggest mistake that everyone seems to make - Liberal, Tory, positive, negative - is confusing shifts of less than 3 points as a trend, or even shifts of 6 points as a \"big shift\". A shift of 6 points could actually be <em>no shift at all<\/em>! It all depends where in the margin of error the shift occurs.\r\nNote that I’m not defending Chantal Hebert’s excitement here. But it’s also the reason you don’t see me raving about a poll showing the Tories \"up 5%\".\r\nLastly, I don’t even know why most people bother with the subregional analysis, unless the sample size is increased dramatically. If you look at the regional error margins they are usually 6-7% or more - meaning again, \"movement\" of 10% or 12% could actually be no movement at all (this explains why the regional breakdowns are always way more dramatc in their shifts)\r\nMy point, as usual, is that anyone that spends an inordinate amount of time getting excited or depressed by polls is just being foolish.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Why does everyone think these two polls can’t both be right? They can be. If actual support levels are:
Conservative 35
Liberal 29
NDP 15
Green 11
Bloc 9
…then the Decima poll and the Angus-Reid poll are both within their stated 3.1% margins. So they’re both right.
The biggest mistake that everyone seems to make - Liberal, Tory, positive, negative - is confusing shifts of less than 3 points as a trend, or even shifts of 6 points as a “big shift”. A shift of 6 points could actually be no shift at all! It all depends where in the margin of error the shift occurs.
Note that I’m not defending Chantal Hebert’s excitement here. But it’s also the reason you don’t see me raving about a poll showing the Tories “up 5%”.
Lastly, I don’t even know why most people bother with the subregional analysis, unless the sample size is increased dramatically. If you look at the regional error margins they are usually 6-7% or more - meaning again, “movement” of 10% or 12% could actually be no movement at all (this explains why the regional breakdowns are always way more dramatc in their shifts)
My point, as usual, is that anyone that spends an inordinate amount of time getting excited or depressed by polls is just being foolish.
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]]> By: harika http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14329 harika Thu, 03 Apr 2008 11:55:49 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14329 HI , Increase your revenue 100% of your blog by converting into free website. Convert your blog "yourname.blogspot.com" to www.yourname.com completely free. Become proud owner of the (.com) own site . we provide you free website+ free web hosting + list of your choice of scripts like(blog scripts,CMS scripts, forums scripts and many scripts) all the above services are absolutely free. You can also start earning money from your blog by referring your friends. Please visit www.hyperwebenable.com for more info. regards www.hyperwebenable.com<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14329','harika'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14329','harika','HI ,\r\nIncrease your revenue 100% of your blog by converting into free website.\r\nConvert your blog \"yourname.blogspot.com\" to www.yourname.com completely free.\r\nBecome proud owner of the (.com) own site .\r\nwe provide you free website+ free web hosting + list of your choice of\r\nscripts like(blog scripts,CMS scripts, forums scripts and many scripts)\r\nall the above services are absolutely free.\r\nYou can also start earning money from your blog by referring your friends.\r\nPlease visit www.hyperwebenable.com for more info.\r\nregards\r\nwww.hyperwebenable.com'); return false;">Quote</a></div> HI ,
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]]> By: Loraine Lamontagne http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14328 Loraine Lamontagne Thu, 03 Apr 2008 09:56:49 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14328 She won't mention it - but will she mention Blackburn?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14328','Loraine Lamontagne'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14328','Loraine Lamontagne','She won\'t mention it - but will she mention Blackburn?'); return false;">Quote</a></div> She won’t mention it - but will she mention Blackburn?
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]]> By: James Curran http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/02/libs-and-cons-deadlocked-in-new-decima-poll-will-chantal-hebert-mention-it/#comment-14327 James Curran Thu, 03 Apr 2008 03:50:35 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1186#comment-14327 Duffy ain't gonna mention it any time soon I'm sure. First Hebert will have to write about how great the Cons are on offering nationhood to Quebec, and declare dead in the water again. Then she'll ignore this poll.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14327','James Curran'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14327','James Curran','Duffy ain\'t gonna mention it any time soon I\'m sure. First Hebert will have to write about how great the Cons are on offering nationhood to Quebec, and declare dead in the water again. Then she\'ll ignore this poll.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Duffy ain’t gonna mention it any time soon I’m sure. First Hebert will have to write about how great the Cons are on offering nationhood to Quebec, and declare dead in the water again. Then she’ll ignore this poll.
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