Comments on: People in PA aren’t “bitter” at Obama… http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/ My personal opinions on social and political issues from a progressive standpoint. Fri, 25 Jul 2008 09:14:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Steve V http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14526 Steve V Tue, 15 Apr 2008 23:50:22 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14526 I guess my point, the trend was for Obama, which I posted on last week. This seems to have killed that, with some slight pullback. Lots of time left, this debate will be key. BTW, I was watching CNN and the frame seems to be whether Clinton can do as well as she did in neighboring states, Ohio and New Jersey, where she won both with identical margins- 10%. If that is the bar, it is actually pretty good news for Obama, because something less than that is clearly doable. BTW II, I did see a LA Times poll today that had Obama leading in Indiana 40-35, which is a first.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14526','Steve V'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14526','Steve V','I guess my point, the trend was for Obama, which I posted on last week. This seems to have killed that, with some slight pullback. Lots of time left, this debate will be key.\r\n\r\nBTW, I was watching CNN and the frame seems to be whether Clinton can do as well as she did in neighboring states, Ohio and New Jersey, where she won both with identical margins- 10%. If that is the bar, it is actually pretty good news for Obama, because something less than that is clearly doable.\r\n\r\nBTW II, I did see a LA Times poll today that had Obama leading in Indiana 40-35, which is a first.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> I guess my point, the trend was for Obama, which I posted on last week. This seems to have killed that, with some slight pullback. Lots of time left, this debate will be key.

BTW, I was watching CNN and the frame seems to be whether Clinton can do as well as she did in neighboring states, Ohio and New Jersey, where she won both with identical margins- 10%. If that is the bar, it is actually pretty good news for Obama, because something less than that is clearly doable.

BTW II, I did see a LA Times poll today that had Obama leading in Indiana 40-35, which is a first.

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]]> By: Scott Tribe http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14524 Scott Tribe Tue, 15 Apr 2008 22:32:21 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14524 Check <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/15/121738/882/161/496129" rel="nofollow">this</a> out Steve - no major trend toward Clinton. The polls are at best mixed.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14524','Scott Tribe'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14524','Scott Tribe','Check <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/storyonly\/2008\/4\/15\/121738\/882\/161\/496129\" rel=\"nofollow\">this<\/a> out Steve - no major trend toward Clinton. The polls are at best mixed.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Check this out Steve - no major trend toward Clinton. The polls are at best mixed.
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]]> By: Steve V http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14522 Steve V Tue, 15 Apr 2008 18:28:56 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14522 Me again ;) One thing about this goalpost notion, the playing field has changed somewhat. Obama is outspending Clinton 4 to 1 in advertising for Penn, which is a remarkable advantage, no matter your preference. In pushing so hard for Penn, Obama has raised expectations somewhat, which means anything less than a close result is a perceived loss. You can't just discount that advantage, it is key in a big state like Penn, it reminds me of Romney, huge expenditures. Anyways, I'm not saying it won't be close, I suspect a few more twists in the coming days. This could still easily go Obama's way, but this controversy has clearly killed his momentum, maybe even some pullback.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14522','Steve V'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14522','Steve V','Me again ;) One thing about this goalpost notion, the playing field has changed somewhat. Obama is outspending Clinton 4 to 1 in advertising for Penn, which is a remarkable advantage, no matter your preference. In pushing so hard for Penn, Obama has raised expectations somewhat, which means anything less than a close result is a perceived loss. You can\'t just discount that advantage, it is key in a big state like Penn, it reminds me of Romney, huge expenditures. \r\n\r\nAnyways, I\'m not saying it won\'t be close, I suspect a few more twists in the coming days. This could still easily go Obama\'s way, but this controversy has clearly killed his momentum, maybe even some pullback.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Me again ;) One thing about this goalpost notion, the playing field has changed somewhat. Obama is outspending Clinton 4 to 1 in advertising for Penn, which is a remarkable advantage, no matter your preference. In pushing so hard for Penn, Obama has raised expectations somewhat, which means anything less than a close result is a perceived loss. You can’t just discount that advantage, it is key in a big state like Penn, it reminds me of Romney, huge expenditures.

Anyways, I’m not saying it won’t be close, I suspect a few more twists in the coming days. This could still easily go Obama’s way, but this controversy has clearly killed his momentum, maybe even some pullback.

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]]> By: Steve V http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14521 Steve V Tue, 15 Apr 2008 18:23:08 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14521 Just to throw something else into the mix, Rasmussen had it Clinton by 5 in Penn last week, today it is Clinton plus 9.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14521','Steve V'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14521','Steve V','Just to throw something else into the mix, Rasmussen had it Clinton by 5 in Penn last week, today it is Clinton plus 9.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Just to throw something else into the mix, Rasmussen had it Clinton by 5 in Penn last week, today it is Clinton plus 9.
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]]> By: Steve V http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14520 Steve V Tue, 15 Apr 2008 18:18:02 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14520 Moving the goalposts? A 10 point win isn't significant, in a key state? Scott, you're the one trying to frame anything less than a 20 point victory as nothing really. Put all the spin aside, a win in the 8-10 point range is a convincing result, by any definition, and it will be reported as such. 40% of super delegates are on the sidelines, and if you look at the past couple weeks, less and less are committing, not more. Don't expect that to change if Clinton wins Penn, in convincing fashion, at the very least people will wait until North Carolina. I've never changed the goalposts, feel free to look at every comment I've ever made on Penn. I said a close victory isn't enough for Clinton, she needs a big victory. 8-10 points is big, it just is, especially for somebody with no chance.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14520','Steve V'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14520','Steve V','Moving the goalposts? A 10 point win isn\'t significant, in a key state? Scott, you\'re the one trying to frame anything less than a 20 point victory as nothing really. Put all the spin aside, a win in the 8-10 point range is a convincing result, by any definition, and it will be reported as such. \r\n\r\n40% of super delegates are on the sidelines, and if you look at the past couple weeks, less and less are committing, not more. Don\'t expect that to change if Clinton wins Penn, in convincing fashion, at the very least people will wait until North Carolina.\r\n\r\nI\'ve never changed the goalposts, feel free to look at every comment I\'ve ever made on Penn. I said a close victory isn\'t enough for Clinton, she needs a big victory. 8-10 points is big, it just is, especially for somebody with no chance.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Moving the goalposts? A 10 point win isn’t significant, in a key state? Scott, you’re the one trying to frame anything less than a 20 point victory as nothing really. Put all the spin aside, a win in the 8-10 point range is a convincing result, by any definition, and it will be reported as such.

40% of super delegates are on the sidelines, and if you look at the past couple weeks, less and less are committing, not more. Don’t expect that to change if Clinton wins Penn, in convincing fashion, at the very least people will wait until North Carolina.

I’ve never changed the goalposts, feel free to look at every comment I’ve ever made on Penn. I said a close victory isn’t enough for Clinton, she needs a big victory. 8-10 points is big, it just is, especially for somebody with no chance.

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]]> By: Scott Tribe http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14519 Scott Tribe Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:52:17 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14519 We already discussed the ARG poll here in comments.. I was showing that a more reliable pollster showed no change in the race. As for SurveyUSA.. the poll prior to this one had Clinton up by 18.. so it shows a slight closing of the gap. You need to stop doing what Clinton supporters do Steve, and that is moving the goalposts. If Clinton wins by 8-10 points.. that's 10 points worse then what most observers a couple of weeks ago said she had to do minimum to put any dent in this delegate race... now all of a sudden if she wins by 8-10 points, thats some great victory? I disagree that an 8-10 point win is somehow going to keep the race going. I think you're going to see some supers moving to Obama.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14519','Scott Tribe'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14519','Scott Tribe','We already discussed the ARG poll here in comments.. I was showing that a more reliable pollster showed no change in the race.\r\n\r\nAs for SurveyUSA.. the poll prior to this one had Clinton up by 18.. so it shows a slight closing of the gap. \r\n\r\nYou need to stop doing what Clinton supporters do Steve, and that is moving the goalposts. If Clinton wins by 8-10 points.. that\'s 10 points worse then what most observers a couple of weeks ago said she had to do minimum to put any dent in this delegate race... now all of a sudden if she wins by 8-10 points, thats some great victory?\r\n\r\nI disagree that an 8-10 point win is somehow going to keep the race going. I think you\'re going to see some supers moving to Obama.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> We already discussed the ARG poll here in comments.. I was showing that a more reliable pollster showed no change in the race.

As for SurveyUSA.. the poll prior to this one had Clinton up by 18.. so it shows a slight closing of the gap.

You need to stop doing what Clinton supporters do Steve, and that is moving the goalposts. If Clinton wins by 8-10 points.. that’s 10 points worse then what most observers a couple of weeks ago said she had to do minimum to put any dent in this delegate race… now all of a sudden if she wins by 8-10 points, thats some great victory?

I disagree that an 8-10 point win is somehow going to keep the race going. I think you’re going to see some supers moving to Obama.

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]]> By: Steve V http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/04/15/people-in-pa-arent-bitter-at-obama/#comment-14518 Steve V Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:46:53 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=1210#comment-14518 Scott To be fair, shouldn't you include the ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 20 points? The same outfit had it tied last week. I'm not a huge fan, but it is noteworthy change. Also, there is a Survey USA poll out, which has the best record of anyone (http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/), giving Clinton a 14 point lead in Penn. There is another link, which shows Clinton widening her lead slightly: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/ Whatever momentum Obama had, and I think he did, seems to have stopped. If Clinton can win by 8-10 points, it represents a big enough victory to carry on, enough to keep the questions in the air, the remaining super delegates on the sidelines.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14518','Steve V'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14518','Steve V','Scott\r\n\r\nTo be fair, shouldn\'t you include the ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 20 points? The same outfit had it tied last week. I\'m not a huge fan, but it is noteworthy change.\r\n\r\nAlso, there is a Survey USA poll out, which has the best record of anyone (http:\/\/www.surveyusa.com\/index.php\/surveyusa-report-cards\/), giving Clinton a 14 point lead in Penn.\r\n\r\nThere is another link, which shows Clinton widening her lead slightly:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com\/\r\n\r\n\r\nWhatever momentum Obama had, and I think he did, seems to have stopped. If Clinton can win by 8-10 points, it represents a big enough victory to carry on, enough to keep the questions in the air, the remaining super delegates on the sidelines.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Scott

To be fair, shouldn’t you include the ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 20 points? The same outfit had it tied last week. I’m not a huge fan, but it is noteworthy change.

Also, there is a Survey USA poll out, which has the best record of anyone (http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/), giving Clinton a 14 point lead in Penn.

There is another link, which shows Clinton widening her lead slightly:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Whatever momentum Obama had, and I think he did, seems to have stopped. If Clinton can win by 8-10 points, it represents a big enough victory to carry on, enough to keep the questions in the air, the remaining super delegates on the sidelines.

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