People in PA aren’t “bitter” at Obama…

Scott

To be fair, shouldn’t you include the ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 20 points? The same outfit had it tied last week. I’m not a huge fan, but it is noteworthy change.

Also, there is a Survey USA poll out, which has the best record of anyone (http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/), giving Clinton a 14 point lead in Penn.

There is another link, which shows Clinton widening her lead slightly:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Whatever momentum Obama had, and I think he did, seems to have stopped. If Clinton can win by 8-10 points, it represents a big enough victory to carry on, enough to keep the questions in the air, the remaining super delegates on the sidelines.

Moving the goalposts? A 10 point win isn’t significant, in a key state? Scott, you’re the one trying to frame anything less than a 20 point victory as nothing really. Put all the spin aside, a win in the 8-10 point range is a convincing result, by any definition, and it will be reported as such.

40% of super delegates are on the sidelines, and if you look at the past couple weeks, less and less are committing, not more. Don’t expect that to change if Clinton wins Penn, in convincing fashion, at the very least people will wait until North Carolina.

I’ve never changed the goalposts, feel free to look at every comment I’ve ever made on Penn. I said a close victory isn’t enough for Clinton, she needs a big victory. 8-10 points is big, it just is, especially for somebody with no chance.

Me again One thing about this goalpost notion, the playing field has changed somewhat. Obama is outspending Clinton 4 to 1 in advertising for Penn, which is a remarkable advantage, no matter your preference. In pushing so hard for Penn, Obama has raised expectations somewhat, which means anything less than a close result is a perceived loss. You can’t just discount that advantage, it is key in a big state like Penn, it reminds me of Romney, huge expenditures.

Anyways, I’m not saying it won’t be close, I suspect a few more twists in the coming days. This could still easily go Obama’s way, but this controversy has clearly killed his momentum, maybe even some pullback.

I guess my point, the trend was for Obama, which I posted on last week. This seems to have killed that, with some slight pullback. Lots of time left, this debate will be key.

BTW, I was watching CNN and the frame seems to be whether Clinton can do as well as she did in neighboring states, Ohio and New Jersey, where she won both with identical margins- 10%. If that is the bar, it is actually pretty good news for Obama, because something less than that is clearly doable.

BTW II, I did see a LA Times poll today that had Obama leading in Indiana 40-35, which is a first.