Sunday Election Campaign Musings. The NDP

“… because I’m not so sure he or the NDP would be able to handle it. It’s easy to make promises and such when you have traditionally had little chance at forming a government. It gets a lot harder when you actually get put there - with apologies to Bob Rae, see 1990 and the NDP election in Ontario as an example.”

Typical Ontario-centric view! The New Democrats have formed multiple governments in British Columbia - Saskatchewan - Manitoba and are the Official Opposition in Nova Scotia. They have taken provinces like Saskatchewan with crippling debt and turned the economy around. The introduction of provincial health plans, and numerous other social and economic initiatives have allowed them to serve a number of terms in each of these western provinces.

It is obvious to me, that Liberals are going to continue in this election as they did in the most recent parliament and give Stephen Harper a pass. Liberal hatred of New Democrats is historical and obvious. Liberal bloggers (shall I raise names here? … cherniak - fuddle duddle and other prove the old prairies axiom: ‘Liberal / Tory … Same old story”

Have a nice rest of your election!!

Sorry to have to point this out, but Danielle was given 100+ seats over two comments last night, but then took over 10 hours to post those comments.

OK, maybe she was away from her computer for awhile and didn’t get around to noticing. I doubt that she was afraid to post the responses to her challenge (couldn’t be that, now, surely).

But you may want to revisit your comment that “So far, responses from NDP partisans have been in short supply” in light of Danielle’s tardiness.

“My question would be to the NDP supporters/partisans/bloggers if they would take an NDP official opposition if the result of the vote-splitting that occurred to get that result means a Conservative majority, which means a firm 4 year continuation of policies and ideas that are anathema to them? Or, will that not matter to them as much as knocking the Liberals into 3rd place?”

Scott, that’s just what we’ve had up to this point, because the Liberals were strategically and organizationally unprepared to wage an election, and thus sat on their hands and let Harper have his way with them, and the rest of the country at the same time.

If you can’t do the job, step out of the way and let someone do it, who can.

You’ve given no evidence that Liberal MPs would start to vote against him after the election (when after all, they’ll be preoccupied with how they can chuck Dion and still pay off all their debts from the last leadership camapign and election), anymore than they did before the election.

@A reader -

Post updated to reflect your list, but her response to your list at her site I included, and I’ve added my scepticism. It appears to me you just threw together a list of 100 ridings by picking them out of a hat in order to send her a list for the mere sake of sending one in.

@A reader -

You’re deflecting the question. I want a simple answer as to whether NDP supporters would take Official Opposition status if it meant in return a Harper majority government.

Yes or no (you can provide reasons for each.. but all I’ve seen are humming and hawwing.. and using this as another excuse to attack the Liberals with).

Hi Scott,
thanks for showing that you would support the liberal MPs supporting a New Democrat led coalition with liberals.
I also realize that you are a left-centre liberal.

“It appears to me you just threw together a list of 100 ridings by picking them out of a hat in order to send her a list for the mere sake of sending one in.”

I didn’t … and I just gave my rationale for the list in a comment over at Danielle’s blog.

“You’re deflecting the question. I want a simple answer as to whether NDP supporters would take Official Opposition status if it meant in return a Harper majority government.”

We will take what the Canadian electorate, in its wisdom, decides is the best outcome. It’s this old-fashioned thing called democracy …

In fact, I was a supporter of mixed-member proportional representation, but it got killed by Liberals amongst others, and the Ontario electorate basically decided that it might have provided equity amongst political parties, but was not a better outcome than first-past-the-post for constituents. Fair enough. In that case, we accept that decision and encourage voters to support the party and leader they truly want to represent them.

I don’t fully accept your hypothetical false-choice between the two named outcomes, but one thing is clear, Scott: the Liberals would gladly accept a Harper majority if it meant they could stay as the Official Opposition and keep the NDP back. In fact, it’s the very situation they created in the last Parliament by refusing to vote on things that really matter to people they supposedly represent, and on which they supposedly disagreed so vigourously with Harper.

“We will take what the Canadian electorate, in its wisdom, decides is the best outcome.”

Sounds a lot like, “Yes, we’ll take it, but I don’t want to admit as much.”

Of course, as you say, the Liberals are for pretty much the same thing.

Which is why partisan voters, on any side, are idiots.

Here’s the deal folks, in a Harper minority, whether or not Liberals are official opposition, Liberals still control whether the government remains in power or not unless they’re decimated to the point where their votes aren’t needed to topple the government. And that just ain’t gonna happen regardless.

So NDP opposition or Liberal opposition makes no practical difference in what we’re going to see.

Harper minority vs Harper majority makes a very big difference. The fact that a minority gov’t could be defeated on a policy confidence vote will keep a minority PM Harper from proposing the stuff that would make Canadians go “WTH?” were an election called over it. So you will not see, say, the resumption of the death penalty being brought up in a minority government.

In a majority government however, especially in early days so that Canadians have 4 years to forget about it? Anybody really want to lay bets that won’t come up and pass?

I’m normally against strategic voting in that voting for anything other than what you want only ensures that what you want won’t be seen as an issue that matters enough to get your vote.

In this case, however, what I want most is an end to Harper’s destruction of our parliament, our government, and our Canadian way of life. Unfortunately, I’m in a conservative stronghold riding, so there’s really nothing I can do about it but whine.

I want a simple answer as to whether NDP supporters would take Official Opposition status if it meant in return a Harper majority government.

Obviously I can’t speak for all NDP supporters, but I wouldn’t hesitate to take the NDP gaining Official Opposition status even if it meant a Harper majority.

Now answer this question, Scott. When election day rolls around would you vote for the NDP if they were ahead of the Liberals in the polls or would you go down with the Liberal ship?

Good news for you Liberals.
Decima and cpac have the race tightning

I’d expect Conservatives to be opposed. It’s their nature: they want everything to remain as is. I do find the occassional progressive supporter opposed to it slightly surprising… slightly (power is power, doesn’t matter who owns it).

(As for the electorate… you can’t blame them entirely if they’re lied to. Yes, in a democracy it’s up to the public to make informed decision, but it’s difficult to sort through truth and lies.)

Stumbled on a paper on Electorial Bias and the NDP. (You can substitute NDP and any established provincial party for the results.) You can see the reluctance for any party to change, especially if they’re an established brand in a province.

Okay, list of provinces that have considered proportional representation referendums:

British Columbia, Ontario: Liberal government in 2005
(They’re going to vote on it again in 2009).

Ontario: Liberal government in 2005

Prince Edward Island: Progressive Conservatives in 2005.

I know I am severely late to the party (sorry, I have been preoccupied) but this “hyper-partisan” would like to respond.

First of all, in terms of seats that the NDP could win, the margins from last time need to be factored in with the massive drop in Liberal support. I think it is altogether possible, and dare I say probable, that the Liberals could fall even further.

On the Harper majority: what is the difference between a Harper majority and a minority where the Liberals prop up the government? Really? And don’t resort to scare tactics about coat-hangers and long drawn-out wars (I’ve heard it all). You need to give the Canadian public a little more credit. There are some things that a government can’t get away with, majority or not.

What is far more insidious and harmful is what the Liberals did in the 90’s with their cuts to transfer payments. This barely registered with voters but it starved our social programs, created a health care crisis in many provinces, and shifted the political spectrum in Canada to the right. Something we still feel today.

New Democrats really do want Jack Layton to be Prime Minister. It’s not just something that we say to look like we are in a position of strength. We are not content with Liberal or Conservative minority or majority governments. So we are doing something about it.

Led by Jack Layton, New Democrats are bringing it this time around. We are not going to concern ourselves with your seat projections based on historical voting patterns. We are sensing the winds of change and we are going to let Canadians know what we have to offer as government and see if they want it.

I could go on about the hypocrisy of Liberals suggesting that New Democrats are selling out the left, but I’m sure you have read my thoughts on this before Scott.