Nanos says we have a race again: Tory lead down to 5 on Liberals.

October 3rd, 2008 | email this | digg it
Leave your comment Posted by Scott Tribe
Published in Canadian Politics
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Well now, this totally made my day. The Cons. have dropped a couple, and the Liberals have surged with a +4 from yesterday:

Conservatives: 35 (-2)
Liberals : 30 (+4)
NDP: 18 (-1)
Greens: 10 (+1)
Bloc Quebecois: 9 (-)

It appears much of the momentum comes in Quebec, where the Liberals are up 7 points from yesterday and into 2nd place in that province, perhaps reflecting Dion’s perceived strong showing and the declared winner of the French language debate. There is also upward movement in Ontario. The Conservatives on the other hand dropped 4 in Quebec and are down 3 in Ontario.

I’m going to guess partly the French language debate, and perhaps the first indications of the plagiarism scandal taking effect is part of this Liberal bounce and the Con slump. I know this may wreck most of the media’s meme that the race is all but over, but who knows, perhaps some will now admit there is still a race.

UPDATE: Look at Nanos leadership chart:

Harper 79 (-16)
Dion 71 (+40)
Layton 48 (-12)

Harper has lost his significant advantage, and Dion has shot up there. That bodes well. Those leadership numbers are an eye-opener, particularly the meteoric rise of Dion’s. I guess some people think he really IS a leader, after all, once they got to see the real Dion and not the caricature that the Cons did of him.

9 Responded To This Post

16656. Dan said on October 3, 2008 at 2:22 pm

Those leadership indexes on Nanos are a little wonky. They’ll go up 20 points one day and drop by a similar amount the next day. So I’m not completely convinced just yet.

Lets hope for a trend.

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16658. Scott Tribe said on October 3, 2008 at 2:36 pm

@Dan -

True, but +40 for Dion is still an impressive meteoric rise.

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16659. Ted said on October 3, 2008 at 4:02 pm

GREAT NEWS FOR THE LIBERAL!??

Greater news for the Tories. I am hoping for a Harper win with a similar majority he has now. That way Dion will stay on as Liberal leader. Be carefull what you Liberals wish, you just may be stuck with Dion.

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16660. Sean S. said on October 3, 2008 at 4:10 pm

I would temper any enthusiasm until the weekend. I don’t think the true (lasting) impact of the debates will be visible until than. That being said, quite a dramatic shift from one day to the other.

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16661. Ted said on October 3, 2008 at 4:39 pm

@ Sean S

You are right, especially when we think of this moment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prPgrzdmmQc

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16662. kwittet said on October 3, 2008 at 6:13 pm

YES..the plagerism scandal…its always a scandal to you scott!! It has been all over the news that his speech writer copied it..so how is that harpers fault? why was it when chretien was in power and adscam erupted that it was not him or martins fault because of the actions of other but when some one in harpers cabinet does something you always blame him? How about the scandal that the libs stole the greenshifts name from a real company? how about the speech not that long ago the dion delivered that was close to being word for word from that looney left wing nut bar suzuki?

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16663. Demosthenes said on October 3, 2008 at 7:25 pm

“looney left wing nut bar suzuki”?

Well, so much for that troll.

I’d be cautious, Scott. This is likely a bump from the French debate; it remains to be seen what’ll happen as a result of the English debate.

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16664. BlastFurnace said on October 4, 2008 at 12:12 am

This is a total surprise … I wasn’t Dion to jump up so much on the leadership score in just one night. To close the favourability score by 56 points (+40 for Dion, -16 for Harper) is nothing short of remarkable. We’ll have to wait until Sunday to see the full effect of both debates, but one can only see this for now as hope.

Kwittet, it doesn’t matter if Harper’s speechwriter stole the speech, Harper still delivered it in the House as though it was his own. Harper should take full responsibility for that and not hope the issue dies by someone else being the fall guy.

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16667. kwittet said on October 4, 2008 at 9:29 am

Originally Posted By BlastFurnace
Kwittet, it doesn’t matter if Harper’s speechwriter stole the speech, Harper still delivered it in the House as though it was his own. Harper should take full responsibility for that and not hope the issue dies by someone else being the fall guy.

blastfurnace

So if we hold the same standard to all parties equally then Chretien and Martin should be in prison as they run the ADSCAM out of the PMO. They are respondsible!! And they stole millions of dollars from the taxpayer..not just a speech!!

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