Nanos narrows to 4 points. Someone tell the media there’s a race!

October 5th, 2008 | email this | digg it
Leave your comment Posted by Scott Tribe
Published in Canadian Politics
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Do you like Nanos? I like Nanos:

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)

If one looks at the regional polls today, we see that the Liberals have taken a decisive lead in Atlantic Canada (not a particular surprise), but the Liberals have now risen to 28% in Quebec, still behind the BQ by a good margin, but well in front of the Conservatives, who continue their nosedive with a 16% showing today. As for Ontario, the Liberals have narrowly edged ahead here within the MOE, and they’re going to need to extend that gap to have any hope of forming a minority government.

The next thing to watch is to see if the media bother to report on Nanos. I’ve speculated that many of the major dailies and tv media are reluctant to report other polls findings, because many of them have agreements with polling companies to do polls exclusively for them.. so you’ll not often see other polls reported on - particularly if it contradicts what their particular poll is finding. But, I think it’s the media’s duty to at least sidetrack their narrative of the Conservatives running away with this race to at least report that the pollster who got it right the past 2 elections is showing a slightly different finding.

Decima is showing a tightening as well - just not as dramatic as of yet - but most are saying the Conservative majority is in peril. That’s heartening news for the progressives out there, but we can’t let up now. We must keep working to boot these Conservatives right out of office. They are a toxic party.

UPDATE: The analysis from Nik Nanos:

The fallout from the French and English debates shows the previous pre-debate 10 point Conservative margin is now four percentage points. Tracking shows incremental movement in favour of the Liberals and Stephane Dion. Dion registered his highest score as the person Canadians think would make the best Prime Minsiter at 20% although he still trails Stephen Harper by 12 points.

His more detailed analysis is on CPAC’s Dale Goldhawk show tonight at 7 pm (EST). It should be very interesting to listen to.

UPDATE 2@ 3:30 pm: Well, at least 1 member of the media has noticed the race is tightening: Andrew Coyne, with a title that really brought a smile to my face: The Tories are in trouble

11 Responded To This Post

16685. jodster said on October 5, 2008 at 3:57 pm

Good news indeed! Can you explain why these polls are so far off the others?

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16686. Scott Tribe said on October 5, 2008 at 4:00 pm

@jodster -

a) Nanos is an outlier (wrong).
b) His polls are detecting something the others aren’t yet, just like in 2006.

To be fair, Decima is also as I said indicating a tightening. And every pollster is noting the Cons are crashing in Quebec.. so we’ll see how it shakes out. But I’m a happy camper today.

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16688. Blackstar said on October 5, 2008 at 4:13 pm

I like Nanos :)

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16689. Steve V said on October 5, 2008 at 4:14 pm

Actually jodster, the actual numbers aside, we do have a common theme. Harper TANKING in Quebec, the race narrowing, Dion’s numbers up, Harper’s DOWN. That narrative, across every poll, which is the important thing, because it will drive the coverage, when you have this sort of unanimity.

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16691. Ted said on October 5, 2008 at 4:30 pm

If you are a Liberal who wants Dion to stick around as opposition leader, this is good news.

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16692. Robert McClelland said on October 5, 2008 at 4:36 pm

And the NDP numbers are holding. Now will you libfloggers believe me that the liberal’s best strategy is to go after Harper, not Layton.

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16693. jodster said on October 5, 2008 at 4:55 pm

Trends are good…maybe by election day things will be tied or with us in the lead!

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16697. Skinny Dipper said on October 5, 2008 at 7:29 pm

I will agree with Robert, not because I don’t want the Liberals to go after NDP votes, but because I think they have the ability to get people to switch votes from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Also, every percentage gain for the Liberals is a percentage loss from the Conservatives–a two percent difference.

While it’s not good to change campaign platforms near the end of a campaign, the Liberals may wish to try offering a “Baby Step Green Shift.” Don’t implement the whole plan right away. Do it in stages to see if it works. Also, stick with the economic issues.

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16702. Ted said on October 5, 2008 at 10:37 pm

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1570

Zogby has McCain down by the same 4 points. Is he supposed to be just as happy as Dion?

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16703. Demosthenes said on October 6, 2008 at 12:12 am

The question is whether there is a bandwagon effect. One of the major reasons for the “not a leader” stuff is that, well, Harper leads the polls. That provokes the “is Dion doomed” stuff, which makes it less likely that people will think he’s a leader, because leaders aren’t doomed, right?

If things tighten up, though, the public will probably start thinking “hey, those Liberals, they’re coming back!” and start rethinking their carefully-crafted, Tory-bought preconceptions. And unless the Tory “platform” is bulletproof, the Liberals will likely find ample ammunition to carve up Harper too.

Yeah. Harper’s in trouble.

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16709. John W said on October 6, 2008 at 5:04 pm

Has anybody told Jack Layton about these polls? He seems to think he’s in 2nd place.He’s so delusional he may still be campaigning a month from now in an empty hall.”It’s between me and Harper!!The choice is Harper or me. Isn’t anybody listening?”

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