Comments on: Nanos narrows to 4 points. Someone tell the media there’s a race! http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/ My personal opinions on social and political issues from a progressive standpoint. Sat, 22 Nov 2008 04:46:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: John W http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16709 John W Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:04:22 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16709 Has anybody told Jack Layton about these polls? He seems to think he's in 2nd place.He's so delusional he may still be campaigning a month from now in an empty hall."It's between me and Harper!!The choice is Harper or me. Isn't anybody listening?"<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16709','John W'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16709','John W','Has anybody told Jack Layton about these polls? He seems to think he\'s in 2nd place.He\'s so delusional he may still be campaigning a month from now in an empty hall.\"It\'s between me and Harper!!The choice is Harper or me. Isn\'t anybody listening?\"'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Has anybody told Jack Layton about these polls? He seems to think he’s in 2nd place.He’s so delusional he may still be campaigning a month from now in an empty hall.”It’s between me and Harper!!The choice is Harper or me. Isn’t anybody listening?”
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]]> By: Demosthenes http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16703 Demosthenes Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:12:05 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16703 The question is whether there is a bandwagon effect. One of the major reasons for the "not a leader" stuff is that, well, Harper leads the polls. That provokes the "is Dion doomed" stuff, which makes it less likely that people will think he's a leader, because leaders aren't doomed, right? If things tighten up, though, the public will probably start thinking "hey, those Liberals, they're coming back!" and start rethinking their carefully-crafted, Tory-bought preconceptions. And unless the Tory "platform" is bulletproof, the Liberals will likely find ample ammunition to carve up Harper too. Yeah. Harper's in trouble.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16703','Demosthenes'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16703','Demosthenes','The question is whether there is a bandwagon effect. One of the major reasons for the \"not a leader\" stuff is that, well, Harper leads the polls. That provokes the \"is Dion doomed\" stuff, which makes it less likely that people will think he\'s a leader, because leaders aren\'t doomed, right? \r\n\r\nIf things tighten up, though, the public will probably start thinking \"hey, those Liberals, they\'re coming back!\" and start rethinking their carefully-crafted, Tory-bought preconceptions. And unless the Tory \"platform\" is bulletproof, the Liberals will likely find ample ammunition to carve up Harper too.\r\n\r\nYeah. Harper\'s in trouble.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> The question is whether there is a bandwagon effect. One of the major reasons for the “not a leader” stuff is that, well, Harper leads the polls. That provokes the “is Dion doomed” stuff, which makes it less likely that people will think he’s a leader, because leaders aren’t doomed, right?

If things tighten up, though, the public will probably start thinking “hey, those Liberals, they’re coming back!” and start rethinking their carefully-crafted, Tory-bought preconceptions. And unless the Tory “platform” is bulletproof, the Liberals will likely find ample ammunition to carve up Harper too.

Yeah. Harper’s in trouble.

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]]> By: Ted http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16702 Ted Mon, 06 Oct 2008 02:37:21 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16702 http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1570 Zogby has McCain down by the same 4 points. Is he supposed to be just as happy as Dion?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16702','Ted'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16702','Ted','http:\/\/zogby.com\/news\/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1570\r\n\r\nZogby has McCain down by the same 4 points. Is he supposed to be just as happy as Dion?'); return false;">Quote</a></div> http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1570

Zogby has McCain down by the same 4 points. Is he supposed to be just as happy as Dion?

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]]> By: Skinny Dipper http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16697 Skinny Dipper Sun, 05 Oct 2008 23:29:31 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16697 I will agree with Robert, not because I don't want the Liberals to go after NDP votes, but because I think they have the ability to get people to switch votes from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Also, every percentage gain for the Liberals is a percentage loss from the Conservatives--a two percent difference. While it's not good to change campaign platforms near the end of a campaign, the Liberals may wish to try offering a "Baby Step Green Shift." Don't implement the whole plan right away. Do it in stages to see if it works. Also, stick with the economic issues.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16697','Skinny Dipper'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16697','Skinny Dipper','I will agree with Robert, not because I don\'t want the Liberals to go after NDP votes, but because I think they have the ability to get people to switch votes from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Also, every percentage gain for the Liberals is a percentage loss from the Conservatives--a two percent difference.\r\n\r\nWhile it\'s not good to change campaign platforms near the end of a campaign, the Liberals may wish to try offering a \"Baby Step Green Shift.\" Don\'t implement the whole plan right away. Do it in stages to see if it works. Also, stick with the economic issues.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> I will agree with Robert, not because I don’t want the Liberals to go after NDP votes, but because I think they have the ability to get people to switch votes from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Also, every percentage gain for the Liberals is a percentage loss from the Conservatives–a two percent difference.

While it’s not good to change campaign platforms near the end of a campaign, the Liberals may wish to try offering a “Baby Step Green Shift.” Don’t implement the whole plan right away. Do it in stages to see if it works. Also, stick with the economic issues.

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]]> By: jodster http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16693 jodster Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:55:26 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16693 Trends are good...maybe by election day things will be tied or with us in the lead!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16693','jodster'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16693','jodster','Trends are good...maybe by election day things will be tied or with us in the lead!'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Trends are good…maybe by election day things will be tied or with us in the lead!
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]]> By: Robert McClelland http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16692 Robert McClelland Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:36:30 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16692 And the NDP numbers are holding. Now will you libfloggers believe me that the liberal's best strategy is to go after Harper, not Layton.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16692','Robert McClelland'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16692','Robert McClelland','And the NDP numbers are holding. Now will you libfloggers believe me that the liberal\'s best strategy is to go after Harper, not Layton.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> And the NDP numbers are holding. Now will you libfloggers believe me that the liberal’s best strategy is to go after Harper, not Layton.
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]]> By: Ted http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16691 Ted Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:30:14 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16691 If you are a Liberal who wants Dion to stick around as opposition leader, this is good news.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16691','Ted'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16691','Ted','If you are a Liberal who wants Dion to stick around as opposition leader, this is good news.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> If you are a Liberal who wants Dion to stick around as opposition leader, this is good news.
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]]> By: Steve V http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16689 Steve V Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:14:13 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16689 Actually jodster, the actual numbers aside, we do have a common theme. Harper TANKING in Quebec, the race narrowing, Dion's numbers up, Harper's DOWN. That narrative, across every poll, which is the important thing, because it will drive the coverage, when you have this sort of unanimity.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16689','Steve V'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16689','Steve V','Actually jodster, the actual numbers aside, we do have a common theme. Harper TANKING in Quebec, the race narrowing, Dion\'s numbers up, Harper\'s DOWN. That narrative, across every poll, which is the important thing, because it will drive the coverage, when you have this sort of unanimity.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Actually jodster, the actual numbers aside, we do have a common theme. Harper TANKING in Quebec, the race narrowing, Dion’s numbers up, Harper’s DOWN. That narrative, across every poll, which is the important thing, because it will drive the coverage, when you have this sort of unanimity.
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]]> By: Blackstar http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16688 Blackstar Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:13:16 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16688 I like Nanos :)<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16688','Blackstar'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16688','Blackstar','I like Nanos :)'); return false;">Quote</a></div> I like Nanos :)
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]]> By: Scott Tribe http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/2008/10/05/nanos-narrows-to-4-points-someone-tell-the-media-theres-a-race/#comment-16686 Scott Tribe Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:00:29 +0000 http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/?p=2641#comment-16686 <a href='#comment-16685' rel="nofollow">@jodster</a> - a) Nanos is an outlier (wrong). b) His polls are detecting something the others aren't yet, just like in 2006. To be fair, Decima is also as I said indicating a tightening. And every pollster is noting the Cons are crashing in Quebec.. so we'll see how it shakes out. But I'm a happy camper today.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('16686','Scott Tribe'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('16686','Scott Tribe','<a href=\'#comment-16685\' rel=\"nofollow\">@jodster<\/a> - \r\n\r\na) Nanos is an outlier (wrong).\r\nb) His polls are detecting something the others aren\'t yet, just like in 2006.\r\n\r\nTo be fair, Decima is also as I said indicating a tightening. And every pollster is noting the Cons are crashing in Quebec.. so we\'ll see how it shakes out. But I\'m a happy camper today.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> @jodster -

a) Nanos is an outlier (wrong).
b) His polls are detecting something the others aren’t yet, just like in 2006.

To be fair, Decima is also as I said indicating a tightening. And every pollster is noting the Cons are crashing in Quebec.. so we’ll see how it shakes out. But I’m a happy camper today.

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