There was a special election held in Mississippi last night to fill a seat in Congress. This seat is one that is in deeply conservative territory; it voted for George Bush to be president by a margin of 2-1 in 2004.  In this particular campaign, the Republicans tried to tar the Democratic candidate here with being a Barack Obama supporter, and more importantly, played up Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his remarks and tried to use that against him.

The result? Not good - for the Republicans that is. They lost by an 8 point margin:

For Republicans, Davis’ defeat is viewed as a possible preview for a widespread GOP thrashing in November, and it shows that trying to link local Democrats in conservative districts to Sen. Barack Obama and his former pastor was not a winning strategy.

Now, some people seem to think that Obama will not be able to stand up to the Republican slime machine when it gets into gear, but recent polls show the Republicans face long odds at making that strategy work:

The party’s fundamental situation is terrible: Republicans are saddled with an enormously unpopular president, a war, a troubled economy and a Democratic opposition that’s being energized by important constituent groups.

An analysis of the recent ABC/Washington Post poll shows signs of the Republican’s being in deep trouble. Obama leads McCain in 3 of the 4 regions of the US and even is competitive with McCain in the South - a traditional Republican stronghold.  It also shows Dems are more trusted then Republicans to deal with the US’s problems - by wide margins. Another new poll out this morning shows Obama again beating McCain nationally.

Combine that with the fact that McCain will be under what I think will be a very effective attack - calling him “McSame” - as in the same as Bush and his failed policies and the Republicans in general, as well as exposing him to the public that he’s not as much of a “maverick” Republican as he’s tried to project, and I think you’re going to see a Republican bloodbath at the polls.

It is not a good year to be a Republican, and I can’t say I feel sorry for them. It can’t happen to a worse bunch (except perhaps Stephen Harper and his lot up here).

Canada is not allowed to deport people convicted of the death penalty in other countries without first getting legal assurances from said country that the death penalty will not be sought. That was a decision brought down by the Supreme Court of Canada - a decision I am sure the Harpercons absolutely detest in their attempts to come across as the law and order party.

That hasn’t stopped them from trying to show people how macho they are however - Stockwell Day announced last November that Canada would no longer seek clemency for Canadians convicted and given the death penalty in countries deemed to have “the rule of law” in place. Setting aside once again the problems that will occur on how Canada intends to define that, we now find out they’ve gone even further then that - it appears in the case of a Canadian convicted of the death penalty in Montana, they were offered a deal for clemency and a return of the Canadian to serve time in Canada - but it was turned down by the Canadian government:

“the Governor of Montana indicated to our Consul General that they were willing to consider commuting Mr. Smith’s sentence so he could be transferred back to Canada, but that they would want some type of guarantee that he would spend at least five years in prison in Canada should a transfer occur.” The revelation is contained in briefing notes prepared in November for Justice Minister Rob Nicholson and released on Friday after an Access to Information request by Canwest News Service. The Nicholson backgrounder is the strongest indication yet that Canada’s efforts to win clemency for Smith were long-standing, resolute and progressing well until the Conservative government abruptly called off the push by its U.S.-based diplomats to fight for Smith’s life.

As Quito says at his site, we basically have enforced the death penalty, not through inaction, but direct action in refusing very reasonable terms offered by Montana - they commute the death penalty, we guarantee he’ll stay in prison for a minimum amount, which could probably be set higher if the Canadian government felt it was warranted.

Smith may not be a role model, but he is an example of Canadians in other countries being abandoned by their government in order to show how “tough” they are, and to hint to their base how they’d love to have capital punishment here or deport people to get fried if they were allowed. Omar Khadr is another example of this, and Brenda Martin would have been another but for the resulting uproar that forced the Conservatives to act, and only after it took a couple of tries.

Note that it took an Access to Information Request to find this refusal of Montana’s offer out. The government was not forthcoming with the public or the opposition parties in QP over this.

I’m outraged that this has occurred, but not surprised with this Harpercons bunch.

Obama IS going to be the Democratic candidate for the President of the United States. I’ve been saying that for a while now whenever I came across skeptics or Hillary supporters up here claiming he couldn’t or wouldn’t win the Democratic race, and I think the voting results a couple of days ago should remove all doubt. The mainstream media in the US has come around to that conclusion too, and the TIME front-page article is one example.

He has weathered Jeremiah Wright (twice), and has shown that while he bent a bit, he did not break.  There were predictions by media down south and up here and in some of the blogs that these episodes would finish him, or show his “unelectability”, but he has proved them wrong.  I believe he will prove them wrong again in the Fall campaign.

Once Dems unite behind Obama and focus their vitriol on McCain and expose him for the hypocrite he’s been on many issues, not to mention wanting to stay in Iraq for 100 years or as long as it takes - whatever comes first -  not to mention voters wanting a break from the current administration under a very unpopular President, I think McCain is going to get decisively beaten by Obama. The  congress, I predict,  is also going to elect increased Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, because of the bad brandname the Republicans have right now, but also because Obama is going to have long coattails for Democratic candidates to use to get elected - particularly out in the Midwest and West.

That will be my new “book it, bank it” statement; I believe both the legislative and executive branch of government will be in solid Democratic hands come the end of that election, with President Obama leading the way. Hopefully by then, not only will we have a progressive government and President in place in Washington DC, but we will have a progressive government in Ottawa as well to compliment him on the things that need to be worked on urgently by North America - global warming/climate change being a key one.

UPDATE@2:46pm: Some of the bloggers up here like Jason who preferred Hillary are starting to think it’s time for Clinton to step down - moreso because some of the race language she’s bringing into this. Democratic bloggers down south and pundits are also reacting harshly to this. What (the) Clinton(s) is (are) now doing is nothing but destructive politics.

SO, I’m about to blogpost something this morning about the US Democratic presidential race in PA last night. (against the wishes of my fellow blogger Jamie. C’mon Jamie, lighten up! We can’t always talk about Canadian politics, and it is a significant event )

Clinton got the win in Pennsylvania most expected her to get, but her 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% margin of victory netted her anywhere from +7 to +12 delegates, it appears - statistically insignificant into digging into Obama’s lead. Chuck Todd was on MSNBC last night saying Clinton now has to win 80-90% of the remaining races to catch Obama’s lead in pledged delegates - and that will not happen.

Of course, Clinton’s surrogates and supporters; both down there and up here, are crowing over this and attempting to spin this as some great victory, but one of her major endorsers - the New York Times - is not impressed and is more realistic:

The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday..Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead.

Not quite a call for her to concede, but pretty close, if you read between the lines.

North Carolina and Indiana are next. North Carolina has been a strong supporter of Obama from past polls, and if those polls are correct - he will win there by a good margin, probably wiping out the meagre gains Clinton had last night. That brings us to Indiana, a state that Clinton has led in, but some recent polls show Obama has overtaken her. I would submit that if Obama wins both NC and Indiana, whose combined delegates up for grabs equals what was at stake in PA last night, the party leaders and/or supers will probably start to endorse Obama for the nomination and try to prevent this from going to the Convention floor if Clinton still refuses to concede.

I caught this little snippet today in the paper when talking about about the SPP or “3 Amigos” summit that the leaders of Mexico, Canada, and the US soon will be holding. What is one of the biggest priorities for Canada at this summit? Apparently, it’s to make sure we aren’t prevented from polluting the atmosphere with even more greenhouse gases in the rush to exploit the oil there:

Canadian officials told reporters that this country will be pressing to know more about potential implications of a recent U.S. congressional move to limit purchases of energy from sources with high output of greenhouse gases. That measure could harm Canadian exports of energy to the U.S. from the Alberta tar sands and have serious consequences for the Canadian economy, the official said.

At least the Canadian officials are acknowledging subtly that the tarsands are a major contributor of GHG -  I suppose for this government, that’s progress. 

That statement in a nutshell describes the Conservative position on the environment; which is they want to pump out the oil at the expense of the environment rather then try to, you know, cap those emissions or look at alternative energy sources. The environment be damned - as long as we, er, the oil companies, are making obscene profits, who cares?

On a side note, I find it rather fitting that Bush would hold this summit in New Orleans. There is not a starker symbol of his failure as a president then the shameful neglect of that city in the aftermath of Katrina (and that neglect is still occurring today).

…at least not yet, and at least not in this newly released poll from Quinnipac, which shows that Clinton’s lead on Obama from their last poll remains unchanged at 50-44.

Ironically, it might not be Pennslyvania where Obama’s comments hurt him - but in Indiana. A new poll there shows that Clinton has increased her lead from 11 to 16. That being said, a loss in Indiana won’t really hurt Obama all that much, particularly when it’s cancelled out by Obama’s sizable lead in North Carolina, which is unchanged.

My take on this remains the same. This is a totally overblown comment that will affect the race minimally - particularly when this analysis of PA delegate totals shows Clinton is hardly going to make a dent in Obama’s lead in delegates.

…but the media, or some of it anyhow, isn’t buying that line of attack.

For reference, both Clinton and McCain (with remarkably similar talking points on this) are referring to this quote that Obama made about the frustrations in middle class America today. Here’s what the CNN political panel had to say:

When you’re getting reactions like that, I doubt this line of attack will hurt Obama all that much.

UPDATE@1:47pm: Thanks to this diarist at Daily Kos for pointing out all the different editorials in the local PA newspapers today that dismiss “bitter-Gate”

A rather slow morning for news on the Canadian front, so I was taking a look at the polling for the Democratic race for the presidential candidate this AM.  As of yesterday, it appears safe to say that Obama has gotten over his “Wright difficulty” with voters.

Gallup daily tracking poll. 4/4-6. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/2-5 results)

Obama 52 (49)
Clinton 43 (46)

Rasmussen daily tracking poll. 4/3-6. Likely voters. MoE 3% (4/3-5 results)

Obama 51 (50)
Clinton 41 (42)

As for state polls, Clinton leads substantially in Kentucky and has a lead outside of the MOE in Indiana in a majority of the polls taken there so far.  Obama has a sizable lead in North Carolina and Oregon. The big state though of the most importance to both campaigns is Pennsylvania. Polls are all over the place there, but the trend is that Obama has steadily closed the lead or may be leading.

Everyone knows my opinion on this race, but if Hillary loses Pennsylvania, or even wins it by a couple of points and gets no more then a net handul of delegates out of it,  do Hillary supporters or even neutral observers really think she should stay in the race (with little chance of making up any ground and probably losing ground on the pledged voting delgates in the remaining states yet to vote) and hope she can convince 2/3 of the uncomitted superdelegates to put her over the top?

I’d hate to annoy any of my readership (particularly my conservative readership) with any more poll analysis, so instead of me talking about it, go visit Steve at his blog, where he talks about 2 more polls released in addition to the PPP poll which shows Obama rapidly closing in Pennsylvania. I never thought she’d lose that state, but with more then 3 weeks to go, who knows?

This isn’t very good news out news out of Zimbabwe: President Mugabe seems determined to nullify the elections that saw him lose power in the Lower Parliament and apparently the presidency as well. Sanctions will not persuade him to go peacefully - I suspect it will take an international or at least an African pan-national force to “persuade” him to leave peacefully and accept the will of the people.

With regards to the Tom Lukiwiski affair, I’ll predict that Harper and Co. will refuse to ask for his resignation or the stepping down of any parliamentary secretarial duties as they’ve said in this article. That shows weakness… unless of course internal polling shows it’s dragging the Cons. down - and then he’ll be promptly dispatched.. as that’s how Harper and his PMO works.

UPDATE: I missed this earlier: The NDP can’t even have a joint press conference with the Liberals - supposedly to show they are on the same side of an issue - without taking potshots at them. If NDP supporters on here wonder why Liberals think they’re attacking them more then the Cons, this and other such events, like Mulclair rising in the house to go after Bob Rae rather then the Cons - would be the reason why. Perhaps they’d better pay attention to that recent Decima poll that showed them in the low tweens nationally and only 10% in Ontario - and last place behind even the Greens. The core constituency probably is telling them they prefer attacks on Cons, not Libs… but so far that’s not sunk in.

If you believe the PPP polling firm, he is - 45 to 43. As their press release indicates, that would be a stunning turnaround from a poll they did 2 1/2 weeks ago, when Hillary Clinton was 26 points ahead. That poll was prior to Obama making his speech on race relations in Philadelphia. Did it make that big of an impact in this state? Talking Points Memo’s Election Central does some analysis:

On the one hand, this is a huge outlier — polls over the last two days from SurveyUSA, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac have Clinton ahead by 6-12 points. On the other hand, PPP has had a pretty good track record this cycle, so maybe they’re ahead of the curve on this one.

As a counterbalance to that, Quinnipac’s poll today shows Clinton still leading Obama by 9%, which is a small decline of 3 points from their last poll taken two weeks ago. This poll does confirm what other polls are saying - Obama is steadily narrowing the lead on Clinton in this state.

If she only “wins” by single digits, that will not put any significant dent into the delegate lead that Obama has on her, and it will be more then wiped out by the sizable lead different polls show he has in North Carolina. The question yet again will be if that is enough to persuade her to give up the race, or perhaps more importantly, convince the uncommitted Dem. superdelegates to swing their support to Obama to end this and give the nominee more time to take on McCain then continue to have an internal battle.