Now this is very interesting indeed:

The Green party, meanwhile, will leap out ahead of the Liberal announcement today with a detailed accounting of its carbon-tax proposal. With its more sweeping taxes and savings, the Green plan may help pave the way to making the Liberal plan look more modest and practical, though Green Leader Elizabeth May, already in an informal co-operation pact with Dion, says that’s not the motivation.

Liz May will certainly say that isn’t her motivation, but remember, she and the Greens are on record as saying they don’t mind other political parties “borrowing” their ideas, because in their view, that benefits everyone in the long run.

The key differences between the Greens’ plan and the Liberals’ plan is listed in the link provided above - it makes for some interesting reading. Releasing the Green Party’s carbon-tax plan and giving it some some publicity ahead of the Liberal announcement might be a pretty shrewd move on the Greens’ part to allow the Liberals to say, “See, the Greens are advocating an even tougher carbon tax then we are (ie. direct tax increases at the gas pump), but we’re trying to be more moderate in our approach”.

I believe May might be a key player in this upcoming debate - she and her Green party has credibility amongst the Canadian population on the environmental issue, and I don’t doubt you will hear her and her surrogates repeating over and over again lines like this when the Liberals plan gets announced with its details:

May said yesterday she wonders why the carbon tax idea is always discussed against the backdrop of rising gas prices, as though that’s the only thing Canadians worry about.They also have concerns about climate change, she said.

We’re going to find out if that is true, as recent polls have suggested, and if they will support the Liberals plan, as recent polls indicate they will. The Greens may not think the plan goes far enough, but they will publicly support it, I don’t doubt, and that will help with selling this to the Canadian public.

If these numbers are true, and if they hold during an election, rather remarkable for the Green Party:

In its two most recent surveys of party preference in the GTA, Harris/Decima has found that the Green party is thriving in the mainly suburban, 905 area code – 16 per cent support in polling carried out over the last week, 17 per cent in a survey carried out toward the end of December. That’s virtually the same support, if not better, than the Green party enjoys in the mainly downtown, 416 area code in the GTA. For the past month, Harris/Decima has been tracking the Greens with support ranging between 11 and 15 per cent among Toronto’s urban voters. There are many implications here for the other, more mainstream parties, especially the New Democrats, who are now routinely placing well behind the Greens – by as much as seven percentage points in December – within the 905 area code…If this trend continues, it will mean the Greens are actually displacing the NDP as the third party behind the Liberals and Conservatives, at least in Toronto’s suburbs.

That’s a stunning percentage for the Green Party, and it’s probably why the NDP wishes to do the Greens no favours on the national stage (ie. not supporting May being in any leaders debate during an election campaign). It’s understandable to try and protect your position, even if it means attacking a party that is basically an ally on the environment. It makes sense though that the Greens would do well in the suburbs - this is an area that has some remaining bastions of “Red Tory’ism” in it, and those voters, who might be socially liberal and who believe in protecting the environment, but are economically conservative, might prefer the Greens to the left-of-centre social democratic/socialist NDP.

All of the mainstream parties, not just the NDP, will of course point out that until the Greens show they can maintain their strength during an election campaign and win some seats, this is nothing more then “parked votes”. That’s a good point, but for the Greens to have such strength now shows that voters in suburbia are seriously considering them as an alternative.

You’re probably thinking I’m referring to John Oglivie, who was endorsed by the Ottawa Citizen to represent Carleton-Mississippi-Mills and to defeat PC incumbent Norm Sterling. While that was news in of itself, the excitement around Green Party HQ is that their candidate in Bruce-Grey Owen Sound, Shane Jolley, has an excellent shot to unseat Bill Murdoch. You might remember Mr. Murdoch was the first PC MPP to come out publicly to dissent against Tory’s plan of faith-based school funding, and if these poll results that are being listed at the Greens page is accurate, you can see why - Jim Harris fills us in:

The poll by Oraclepoll shows:

Bill Murdoch, Progressive Conservative – 37%
Shane Jolley, Green Party of Ontario - 28%
Liberal - 21%
NDP- 13%

A shift of 4% of Murdoch’s support to Shane along with picking up just one point from the Liberals and NDP will see Shane win. And is accurate within 5.6% margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

In addition, the Owen Sound newspaper - the only one within that riding - has endorsed Mr. Jolley, and that is pretty significant. John Tory is in worse trouble then I thought if the Greens are this competitive in the bluest of blue Progressive Conservative seats.